Here I want to look at more decisions on doubling and when to double in race situations. In general in cash game play then the further away you are in terms of completing the game then the more marginal the situation. For instance if you have a lead of 20 and your count is 60 which means that you are 60 pips away from taking off all of your counters while your opponent is 80 then this situation is hugely advantageous. In fact you are a huge 8-1 favourite here meaning that your opponent is 8-1 to win from this position while you are 1-8 to win it.
Translated then this means that you will win 8/9 from this position. However with say 110 pips to go to the finish line and you having that same lead of 20 then you are roughly a 4-1 favourite. It is still correct to double as you will win 80% of the time from this situation. But look at how being further away from the finish line has halved your advantage.
This is even more pronounced with small leads. With 60 pips to the finish and you having a lead of say 8 then you are a favourite but little more than 2-1 which is still good equity providing that you move your checkers well in the bear off but it isn’t crushing. But translate that to 100 pips from the finish line and suddenly you are only 6-4 favourite. Here is a situation where players differ in styles. A double is good here but more risk adverse players would refuse it to lower variance. If they feel that they can outplay their opponents anyway then they may not want to double for fear of being re-doubled and losing one game that is out of sync with the size of previous games.
