Let us imagine that you are an advanced backgammon player and are about to start a short match against a novice. The match length is the first to five and so what should your initial doubling strategy be? Well firstly this is a very short game but if you are playing with the Jacoby rule where you cannot secure doubles and trebles without having first doubled then doubling is clearly in your favour. However if you double immediately then you risk losing the match on a couple of fluke wins by your opponent.
In a match of this length and an opponent who is likely to take poor doubles then my first intention would be to wait to see how the first stage of the game went. If you double immediately then the cube will be on 2 and your opponent will be in possession of it. Also if they win the game and it is a double game then you are immediately 4-0 down and on the verge of defeat. So I would wait and see how the first game transpired and if my opponent built up an advantage then I could refuse the double with the score at 0-0.
Bad players also double when they have clear and sometimes crushing advantages where their equity would have been greater by playing on. This allows you to escape with a mere 1pt loss rather than a possible 2pt loss. However if the first game goes in your favour and you have built up a favourable position then you can double and as long as you do not leave it too late then a novice player should take it and you can win a 2pt or even a 4pt game. This is how you beat novices because their average winning points total is less than yours.
