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In one of my recent posts I touched on the subject of cheating in casino stud poker. Usually when there are big odds to be found then these games tend to attract the cheats. This has nothing to do with the house edge but the actual pay-offs that are obtained when you can get away with a cheating move in this form of casino gambling.

The best game for this is roulette where you don’t have to get away with many moves to walk away with a substantial pay-off. The 35-1 and 17-1 top pay-offs are like beacons to cheats. But in CSP too then you can get big pay-offs.

50-1 for a straight flush and 20-1 for quads are big odds as is the generally offered 8-1 for a full-house. Of course unlike on roulette, big hands get noticed on CSP and you need to remember one very important thing, casinos can and will delay payment until CCTV has been checked and it would take a very naive casino to blindly pay a huge bet on a straight flush and there are not many naive casino bosses around.

I have known some pretty poor shift managers in my time but never a General Manager. Card marking is another threat to casinos although in my experience, the cards are not checked well enough. As is the case, small casinos with little action and small turnover can be got at because they don’t perceive any threat from punters playing for small amounts.

As usual collusion is yet another problem and a dealer can easily pay an empty box for its ante when they have no hand and then claim a mistake even when they got caught or if the supervisor spotted it.

Casino bosses are more than aware of collusion incidents and the CCTV and surveillance is as much for the staff as it is for the punters.

See you soon

Carl

Back when I was in gaming, the casino’s never trusted their own staff. Although this is hardly bad because if I owned my own casino then I wouldn’t trust the people who worked for me either.

My experience of human nature is such that if people are given the opportunity to steal and especially when they can get away with it then they will do so. It is just nothing more than human nature. The situation is made worse by the fact that croupiers and casino employees are not well paid compared to other professions.

Although it has to be said that paying staff more money would not deter them from cheating. I have been approached numerous times by crooked punters. They tended to find out where we socialised out of work and then hung out there.

We were expressly forbidden to mix with punters for this very reason although that didn’t stop it from happening. I should have reported these approaches but didn’t as I did not want to stir up any more trouble. I figured that I had been targeted for a reason and that reason was because it was common knowledge that I was disgruntled working in that job.

So it isn’t surprising that certain punters must have heard my conversations with other members of staff in the pit area. But I knew of cases where staff were colluding with punters and there were numerous cases where staff were actually caught stealing. I have heard of cases where chips were passed to punters by all sorts of ways.

I have seen dealers deliberately pay losing bets and I have known that it was deliberate but when you lump all of this together then you can hardly blame casinos for watching their staff.

You wear trousers, shirts and waistcoats without pockets and belts were not allowed where I worked and even watches inside one casino although that was for other reasons as well.

Casino owners do not want punters asking a croupier what time it is and then realising that it is time to go home

see you soon

Carl
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It always used to amaze me (and still does) that live casinos like punters to know that blackjack is a game of skill which can be beaten. But yet when anyone exhibits enough skill to be able to do so then they are prevented from playing in the same way or even from prevented from playing at all in some locations.

I find this behaviour objectionable to be quite frank and always have even when I was in gaming. I understand perfectly the casino’s position. At the core of it all is a company who is providing entertainment and nothing more. But if this is the case (which it is) then these companies shouldn’t (even in the past) have lured people in to play the game in that way.

So what they are basically saying is, we want all of the players who think that they can play the game with skill but who are deluding themselves but anyone who really has the skill is not welcome. I don’t mind not being welcome and never have but I have never liked some of the tactics of the casinos where I worked.

Skill can also be obtained on roulette as well, if you don’t think that is true then you obviously haven’t read enough of my posts. Like I said with the biased wheel post yesterday, it is possible for a player to obtain an edge on roulette on the right wheel greater than a card counter can obtain on blackjack.

In all my posts it has become evident to me that I have not revealed any clues as to how to spot biased wheels. What we are looking at here are what should be normal random distributions of numbers.

The next step is to look at if these numbers are appearing outside of what is normal random distribution. Seeing the number 4 arrive three times in four spins is certainly not evidence of bias. Most biased wheels are not biased enough to overcome the 2.7% house edge on single zero roulette.

We now need to get into areas like confidence levels here but in no way am I a mathematician. I just have access to confidential data that is all so I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the figures…..just the sources that they stem from.

Modern Huxley wheels have bias detection software but I believe that most casinos would not employ these very expensive wheels when they could use cheaper varieties. The figures that I have seen recommend tracking a wheel for an initial 200 spins.

This represents the initial assessment, if a wheel has a strong enough bias to be worthwhile then it will show itself during this length of time. The next step is to take a look at the frequencies involved but that is for a later post.

see you soon

Carl
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Question……..would a punter be able to spot a biased wheel with the naked eye.

Answer………Almost certainly not

Question…….Would a casino member of staff spot a bias with the naked eye

Answer……..Almost certainly not

The problem with trying to spot a bias is that numbers frequently come in clusters anyway. In this instance then it is exactly the same as lottery numbers, in fact the chances of either lottery numbers or roulette numbers coming out in equal frequency are very remote. If you had 37 spins of a roulette wheel then the chances that these 37 spins would produce all 37 numbers exactly once would be astronomical.

So this means that numbers are getting repeated quite often in the short term and this is entirely normal and merely part of normal random distribution.

So it is difficult or even downright impossible for punters or staff to spot this with the naked eye as they witness normal events that appear like bias every single day when it actually isn’t.

On a 37 number roulette wheel then the bias doesn’t have to be great to totally offset the house edge. On this 37 number wheel, the odds of any one number arriving are 36-1 and the odds that are paid are 35-1.

But if a certain number (for reasons unknown) was arriving not at a rate of once every 37 spins but once in every 36 spins then any punter who recognised this would be playing equal with the house.

Take that one step further and let us say that a number was arriving once in every 35 spins…..now we are into making money territory. Imagine a player who has found a bias on number 17 and was betting $5 per spin.

He was getting 70 spins per hour on a fast game so was wagering $350/hour. But his number was being hit on average one spin in 35 so he was getting 2 winning bets per hour. At 35/1 plus the $5 bet back then this equates to $180×2 = $360.

He has had 68 losing spins at $5 which is $340 and 2 winning spins at $175 per spin so he is $10 in profit. If he can replicate that then he is making $10/hour from a biased wheel. If he doubles his bet then he makes $20/hour and so on.

He is returning $10 on every $350 wagered and is returning 2.85% on turnover. To put this into perspective, this is considerably higher than a conventional blackjack card counter. The difference is that once a wheel like this is found then a player can get away with this and perform this far easier than a card counter.

see you soon

Carl

When I wrote my first book, “Princes of Darkness : The World of High-stakes Blackjack” back in 2006, many people jumped on me for only using the basic high/low count. This is a basic level 1 counting system where you only add and subtract in units of one.

Some of the criticism amazed me and especially from so called blackjack experts who clearly had not read my reasons further into the book. These were clearly people who were stuck in what was conventional card counting blackjack train of thought.

I on the other hand was thinking beyond conventional card counting. I simply did not want (could not handle) complicated multi-level counting systems whilst trying to shuffle track at the same time. Card counting is difficult at the best of times whilst having to interact in normal ways and worry about signalling in BP’s.

On top of this you are trying to keep a score on what has been won and lost and if you have people in your team who you cannot trust, you have more than enough to think about and if any “expert” thinks that while doing all this that they can use a multi-level counting system on top then I have two words to say to that……try it!

Even IF you succeeded which would be very doubtful then you still have the rather serious problem of fatigue waiting ominously just around the corner. To do all these things whilst trying to supervise several team members at the same as well as keep an eye out for casino personnel and any potential heat is very difficult.

In fact I would have to say that had I not had all of my years in gaming where I practiced counting speed and multi-level counting systems coupled with already knowing about casino techniques and surveillance then I just don’t think that I would have been able to pull everything off. There is no doubt in my mind that I would have probably been forced to drop the shuffle tracking element.

But seeing as I didn’t see how card counting could be profitable as a stand alone way of making money from blackjack in 1998 then it is doubtful if the entire thing would have got off the ground to begin with.

see you soon and take care

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

I must confess that before I started working with bwin, I was unaware as to how big and just how varied their markets really were. Coming to the site is worth it just for the extensive football betting and bwin live betting and streaming service by itself. If all that doesn’t grab your attention then you can get yourself across to their poker room which is one of the best on the net and with some great bonuses to boot.

You can also get access to some great poker material as well on the poker blog section with some great features and news. I think for me personally one of the outstanding features that any gambling site can have is variety and daily content. But there are millions of people who are turning to the online casino experience these days.

In fact I was only having this exact same conversation with a professional colleague of mine the other day. We discussed how land based casinos were starting to veer down the electronic gaming avenue. This is certainly the case in the UK. We have electronic blackjack, electronic roulette and all the rest of the electronic games that are sprouting up like mushrooms.

They are entering dangerous ground in my opinion because what they are starting to offer in a gaming sense is starting to merge with what online casinos offer. So in future, where will the incentive be for punters to leave their own home to gamble on blackjack or roulette etc when everything can all be got from their very own computer? There are always those who fear cyber crime of course by these days sites like bwin employ some of the best experts in the world to thwart these people.

In my mind the threat is no more real than getting mugged outside a casino (which almost happened to me once). I can also say that numerous people have had their cars broken in to whilst being inside a land based casino and I have even heard of big winners being followed home and then robbed at home. Land based casinos are also a haven for thieves and pick pockets so if you think by avoiding online casinos that you are safer then you had better think again.

I really do think that you are safer both physically and financially playing online casino gambling and this is from someone who has done both on numerous occasions.

see you soon

Carl

After a re-run of the Derren Brown show the other night, my interest in being able to read the spin was increased again and we had our weekly casino trip last night. We normally go on a Friday but we went with a few friends this time who met us there and we ended up having a really good evening.

One of the guys was really annoying but apart from him, the rest were OK. No such luck with regards to the wheels inside this casino, all these wheels were John Huxley low profile wheels, but of course I knew that they would be seeing as I had only been there just over a week earlier

I selected a dealer who was keeping his rotor speed quite slow and the ball composition and diameter was perfect. If you can get large roulette balls that are made of substances that offer little activity once they drop from the ball track then this is always highly attractive.

So I bought in for £50 and played even chances for a while and I took down some numbers in the way that a system player would do. I just wanted some cover as to what I was really doing and that was trying to read the spin. I didnt want the dealer changing the speed of the wheel or messing around with his spin. I like it when everything is perfect, have to work less that way

After about 6 spins with me placing the odd bet on even chances, I could pin this dealer down to a block whenever they spun. I had him as hitting the number 2 and the neighbours so I placed a five piece bet on 2, 21, 25, 4  and 17……RESULT…..it hit 6……missed by two.

The next spin and I bet 3, 12, 35,26 and 0 as this dealer was moving the ball around the wheel in blocks which is quite common amongst certain dealers. This time the ball caught the far edge of the block and nestled into number 12, a £175 pay-out minus the £20 on the other numbers so a profit of £155 less the £25 that I had lost on the first spin and the £10 betting even chances and I was £120 ahead after five minutes.

I lost another £50 back with two losing bets but won five consecutive £5 bets on even chances so I ended the session £95 ahead. The dealer changed and the new guy dealt in a very aggressive way so I left. You see Derren, the low profile wheel is the REAL test

see you soon

Carl “The Dean” Sampson – author- Killer Roulette

I managed to watch a repeat showing of the Derren Brown program the other night and I must say that I found a few things that didn’t add up. I couldn’t understand why the casino had to be incognito. I can understand how he wanted to catch a dealer unaware so that they don’t try to spin in a deceptive way.

But why keep up this charade after the event? We are still nowhere near to finding out where this casino was except that it was in mainland Europe. Why go to Europe? The only viable reasons that I can think of are that he wanted to play bigger maximums and there are not many casinos who allow £5000 on a number.

At £175000 a hit then a casino can lose seven figures very quickly with those sorts of maximums and that is rare to find casinos wth those sorts of maximums, this could be why he went into Europe. Its possible that a few casinos in London may have those maximums I dont know. But also the wheel was a deep slotted high profile wheel and even the ball composition seemed perfect to me for this sting. It almost looked like the perfect scenario…..too perfect.

His theories though were spot on and if anyone re-reads my past posts on roulette you will see that I have been saying exactly the same thing with regards to the theory of how to beat the wheel. But something else that didn’t ring true, what are the chances of him finding someone who had £5000 in disposable cash that he could readily put his hands on.

Having £5000 that was not already invested or tied up in some other way is relatively rare even for prosperous people. I am not sure about the necessity to relate a moving roulette ball with playing squash and looking at traffic on a motorway, I can understand the connection, its the linking it in a successful way to beat roulette that I found a little odd. There is just no way that a bouncing squash ball shares any characteristics with a roulette ball in composition, density and bounce.

And if anyone who came up to me in the street and waved their arm in front of my face, the natural reaction wouldn’t be to slip into hypnosis but to make a defensive reaction in response to a possible attack…..still if you didn’t look too closely then it made for an entertaining program. Still Derren, you don’t need to practice for a year to hit next door on a high profile roulette wheel, I could have trained you up in far less time

Carl “The Dean” Sampson author of Killer Roulette

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