After watching the Fulham vs Tottenham game last night we headed to a casino for the first time in ages. In fact regular readers of the blog since it started will have read some of my earlier posts regarding these trips. The journey took about an hour so we arrived at about 9pm.
Casinos tend to be quiet at around this time so it is a good time to go. You don’t have to wait at the bar or wait for coffee for ages either. As usual we took a friend for my partner as I hate playing and leaving her. She merely likes to watch and has no interest in gaming.
The blackjack game was a six deck shoe game (not my favourite) but I decided to play anyway. Sometimes when you manage to get an inexperienced dealer then they can often make mistakes. Although in England the mistakes are often picked up by the Inspector anyway.
However I don’t have any good news to report as every dealer that I encountered seemed competent to me. I merely played table minimums for about an hour and then became bored after losing about £10.
I hate the new electronic games inside casinos these days as they leave no room for creativity with regards to gaining an edge….at least not for people like me anyway who is old school. It felt good to be back inside a casino again, maybe I just need to find some now that have decent blackjack action.
Why not come and bet in the bwin casino with some great casino?
There have been big debates down the years about the merits of card counting systems and comparing one to the other. This kind of reminds me of online poker and what is the best way to operate. With online poker then there is simply no one shoe fits all policy and there never can be in a million years.
Much depends on how good you are, how fast you can play, if you have rakeback, how your game stands up to multi-tabling, does watching your opponents figure greatly in your play and the list goes on and on. Usually you need to find your own level in online poker or any other form of poker to be able to make money.
Players that cannot find their own level or are constantly trying to move up and be big shots usually bust out. There is little difference with blackjack, the best card counting system is basically specific to each individual. You cannot quote some level 4 type system as being optimal if the individual cannot use it properly without losing count.
So if a certain system is “best” for you then it is “best” and it is that simple. It is the same when financial consultants recommend financial products to clients. There is no stand out best product, only what products are best for certain people.
So a blackjack player who struggles with adding up and true count conversions may find the KO Count optimal. Then again, someone who was playing long hours who was also shuffle tracking and wanted to incorporate everything as efficiently as possible may find the high/low optimal (like we did).
Then again, a player who has the mental fortitude and is doing nothing but counting and wants optimal power and results may use a level four system. So there is no such thing as the “best system” in the world…..only what is best for the individual.
See you soon
Carl “The Dean” Sampson
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When I wrote my first book, “Princes of Darkness : The World of High-stakes Blackjack” back in 2006, many people jumped on me for only using the basic high/low count. This is a basic level 1 counting system where you only add and subtract in units of one.
Some of the criticism amazed me and especially from so called blackjack experts who clearly had not read my reasons further into the book. These were clearly people who were stuck in what was conventional card counting blackjack train of thought.
I on the other hand was thinking beyond conventional card counting. I simply did not want (could not handle) complicated multi-level counting systems whilst trying to shuffle track at the same time. Card counting is difficult at the best of times whilst having to interact in normal ways and worry about signalling in BP’s.
On top of this you are trying to keep a score on what has been won and lost and if you have people in your team who you cannot trust, you have more than enough to think about and if any “expert” thinks that while doing all this that they can use a multi-level counting system on top then I have two words to say to that……try it!
Even IF you succeeded which would be very doubtful then you still have the rather serious problem of fatigue waiting ominously just around the corner. To do all these things whilst trying to supervise several team members at the same as well as keep an eye out for casino personnel and any potential heat is very difficult.
In fact I would have to say that had I not had all of my years in gaming where I practiced counting speed and multi-level counting systems coupled with already knowing about casino techniques and surveillance then I just don’t think that I would have been able to pull everything off. There is no doubt in my mind that I would have probably been forced to drop the shuffle tracking element.
But seeing as I didn’t see how card counting could be profitable as a stand alone way of making money from blackjack in 1998 then it is doubtful if the entire thing would have got off the ground to begin with.
When you have been in gambling as long as I have (far too long actually) then you begin to take certain things for granted and certain types of knowledge. One of those pieces of knowledge is basic strategy for blackjack.
The thing is that basic strategy isn’t rocket science and is so easily learnt. All you have to do is memorise a few simple charts. But one of the underlying problems behind why millions of blackjack players worldwide both in live casinos and online casinos do not use basic is not because they cannot memorise the tables but because they simply do not believe in it.
There is a tendency to be seduced by the effect of immediate short term results. This happens in poker an awful lot. If a player re-raises a rock with K-10 and the flop comes K-10-5 and he ends up busting the AA of his opponent then this underlines in his own mind that he made the proper play.
This happens in blackjack, you tell someone that they need to take a card on 15 against a 10 and they do so. They then bust on six consecutive occasions and then think that taking a card on 15 is wrong and go back to their old way of playing.
They then say things like “well if I had stood instead of taking a card then at least I would have had a chance”. They just cannot comprehend that these strategy plays are computed over hundreds of thousands (even millions) of situations and when replicated often enough is the correct mathematical play.
You can also have certain players who try to “feel” what the next card is. I like watching these types and find them hilarious. This is especially the case when they are on the last box playing the role of “goalkeeper”.
It is quite amusing to see the look on their faces when their play leads to the dealer busting on several consecutive occasions. They almost look like some “blackjack Zen master” when all they are is extremely misguided and naive about blackjack.
Many attribute successful blackjack players as being individuals but they never work on their own. Even if they might happen to practice on their own, they are operating with knowledge gained from some of the greatest exponents on the planet. I know from past experience that even when I was on my own as a counter, I still had an arsenal of world renowned experts swimming around in my head.
In my mind, I was never going into a casino on my own as I had other people there with me in spirit. I had read Million Dollar Blackjack by Ken Uston more times than I can care to remember. Ken ran what was perhaps the most successful blackjack operation in the history of the game and I did learn an awful lot from him from reading that one single book. Then we had Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong, an absolute classic of a book and still as relevant today as it was when the first edition came out back in the eighties.
I had started the process off by reading Beat the Dealer by Edward Thorp back in 1990 and that really kick started the whole process. The book was dated compared to the others but it was still a gem. This was the first great blackjack book and it must have kick started the careers of thousands of card counters.
Then we had Playing Blackjack as a Business by Lawrence Revere, like Stanford Wong this name was an alias but Revere also had a dark side as well. Rumour had it that he also worked as a card counter spotter for casinos and that he also caught the very people who he had trained up.
Many would argue that Blackjack for Blood by Bryce Carlson should also be up there. The sections on the Advanced Omega 2 counting system and evasion techniques were great information. Then I had Blackjack Attack by Donald Schlesinger. This for me could be the greatest blackjack book ever printed and was the first book to properly explain how strategy deviations were of less importance and the “sweet 16″ and “illustrious 18″ were formed in that book.
Then I had The Theory of Blackjack by Peter Griffin, a very mathematically heavy book but still very good reading. I also have to mention the articles on shuffle tracking in Blackjack Forum by Arnold Snyder as being excellent value. I could mention countless others, the Shuffle Trak program by Mesa Verde Software, Stanford Wong’s Professional Count Analyzer are also up there.
So I was never on my own, I had the best team on the planet helping me……The Blackjack All Stars……what casino can stand up to that kind of team without changing the game or the rules……none!
How do you get the money onto a blackjack table without looking like a card counter? This is the problem that you face as a pro blackjack player. Let us say that you have a $2 table minimum and a $200 table maximum. But due to bankroll limitations, your maximum bet is $100. This is still a bet spread of 50/1 if you deviate between betting $2 and betting $100.
This is called bet spread and will get you caught in any casino for the simple reason being that this is what they look for. So you need to reduce your spread, if you think that this is reducing your profit then you are wrong. Let us say that your could theoretically make £10,000 in a six month period but after that six month period, you were basically prevented from playing wherever you went as your details were now on some database of undesirables.
Let us also say that had you reduced your spread during that same period, your theoretical earn rate would only have been a mere £4000. During that six month period, it is easy to think that you are maximising your earnings but that is merely an illusion.
It is like a tortoise and the hare type situation where the player who is earning less has the ability to carry on doing so at a rate of £8k a year. Let us say that his playing career lasts for 10 years at the same rate, he has then made £80k compared to the other players £10k and all because he chose a more realistic bet spread.
You need to sacrifice profit, if you try for the maximum possible then you will fail for the simple reason being that you will expose your operation. If you could start betting £5 instead of £2 then that would be a start, straight away you have reduced the spread to 20/1 from 50/1 when you max out with your £100 bet. You could then use a typical gambling doubling up system and make it known to everyone that this is what you are doing. You prepare for the jumps by increasing your bets in neutral counts.
This has the added effect of confusing any member of staff who can card count as you will be increasing your bet when the count isn’t positive but it also allows you to get to your maximum bet faster should the count continue to escalate.
I may not be having any casino trips on a Friday/Saturday for a while after a very close family member was diagnosed with a serious illness on Tuesday. So I guess that this means that I will have to think about something else to write about the following day
I remembered though yesterday that I was only part way through talking about basic strategy. I had already discussed the decisions for standing and now we will look at the splitting decisions. Once again this is a generic basic strategy so should not be seen as remotely definitive.
To be able to split then you must have a pair and we will start with the highest pair which is aces. Here you are correct to always split them unless the dealer is showing an ace. With tens you never split them but in many casinos you simply do not have the option to do so anyway. With nines then you split them if the dealer has a nine or below except if they have a seven showing. Anything above a nine by the dealer and you stand.
You split 8-8 if the dealer has a nine showing or lower, sevens if the dealer has a seven or lower, sixes if they have a six or lower, do not split fives or fours. Finally, split 3-3 and 2-2 if the dealer has a seven or less. In future posts I will look at soft totals that include an ace.
But while we are on the subject of basic strategy then I will mention doubling as well. You double on 11 if the dealer has a nine or less, you double on ten in the same way, you double on nine if the dealer has a 3,4,5 or 6.
So this is basically it then with regards to basic strategy, all I have missed are the soft totals which I will cover in a later post. But once again it is important that you realise that these are generic and rules variations and geographical location will mean that there will be differences in what I have just said.
But if you want to be a good blackjack player, get down to basics first
It has taken a while but I have finally watched the mover “21” with Kevin Spacey. I think as with all movies that surround technical fields like sports and games, there are going to be numerous things that are not accurate. Today’s video shows the preview for the movie and has been selected by me because it sort of fits in with what I have been saying about blackjack.
At the end of the day, anything that has been written, spoken or filmed about the game of blackjack rightfully takes its place in the blackjack world whether people agree with it or not. It is inevitable that Hollywood will do their stuff and change what the MIT team did just for dramatic effect.
So we have a situation where reality and fantasy merge. Even when I wrote my book “Princes of Darkness: The World of High-stakes blackjack”, it was difficult to get across the reality of it and I was the one who was writing the book. In fact I have to confess that I slightly inflated and dressed up certain things in a minor way and I think that is kind of inevitable during the process.
I remember a few years ago watching Rounders with Matt Damon and even though that is probably the best film on poker ever made due to its accuracy, I found it very clichéd and done in a way that still didn’t depict true reality. Watching the movie “21” will not reveal how to run a successful blackjack team although it will reveal useful tips if you zoom in on them.
But things like using two big players on the same table isn’t needed for instance as this just brings too much heat down and tipping is not something that a professional blackjack player does on any great scale simply because the edge is so small. By all means watch the movie if you have never watched it before but do remember that you are watching Hollywood at work here.
For all you people out there who play blackjack, you may already know what a difficult game it is to master. My belief though is that most people simply do not know about the marvelous subtleties of the game. In fact when I read my first ever blackjack book back in around 1990 then my knowledge and understanding of the game quantum leaped. That book was Beat The Dealer by Ed Thorp which was the first great blackjack book.
The game is deeply mathematical in nature, but yet as someone who is not well grounded in mathematics myself, I know from personal experience that there comes a time when knowing the in depth mathematical stuff using qualifications in highly advanced mathematics and statistics is simply not needed and has diminishing returns. There are far more important skills to playing blackjack and beating the game inside live casinos.
Honesty is a massive element in team play and I do know of certain blackjack teams who used polygraph machines to test to see if results were being reported correctly. I tried to get around this problem by operating in such a way as to make everything as open as possible. I did not allow any team member to operate alone as I knew that this would be a problem or at least a potential problem.
At the end of the day, people need money and people have debts and bills to pay. If they don’t have enough money to get by or if they have other expensive habits then the temptation to steal is ever present. I never wanted to go down the avenue of polygraph testing although at one stage I did secretly inquire about the price of a such a device and how easy it would have been to get hold of one.
But these are things that need to be ironed out first and not during the operation. Also it is pretty difficult to ask someone to take a test when it is them who is stumping up the money as the main financial backer. So I was in a very awkward situation anyway. But polygraph testing has been used numerous times with professional gambling teams and not just in casino blackjack either……and you thought that professional blackjack was all about counting cards
One of the biggest running counts that I ever saw happened during the second year of our operation. I was back counting a shoe game and with a table full of seven players, the first two rounds of play produced only one ten value card.
The first round of play alone left a running count of +14 and the second round increased this still further to +25 if my memory serves me correctly. This was a six deck game so with 5.5 decks remaining the true count was 4.5.
In all my years of casino gambling and counting cards both in and out of gaming, I have never seen a running count go through the roof as quickly as this. I would like to report that we made a lot of money from this situation but the rest of the team wasn’t present as I was merely scouting the game
Still, a few percent in edge isn’t something that you can take to the bank. But it does make a good story and the sum total of this advantage was that I won £45. I couldn’t really max out on the situation for two reasons.
Firstly I was only playing minimums and having a spread that was too big would have alerted the gaming staff. A second reason was that I didn’t have that much on me for a scouting mission (about £200).
There was another reason as well and getting heat at this stage would not only have been foolish but it would also have been selfish as well as we would have been coming back into this casino at some future point in time.
The game from a theoretical point of view with regards to conventional blackjack was poor, the penetration was around 60-65% and the game was six deck.
So without shuffle tracking and advantage play, it was quite poor. This was a cross reference taken from six different blackjack dealers. Not one single dealer dealt more than about 70% of the cards from the shoe at anytime.
Blackjack can really be a frustrating game at times but +25 after two rounds…..now that takes some doing.
