If you think about this for a minute then the advantage is rather obvious. Every time that you take a card and bust then the dealer wins. So if you have 13 and they have 10 then you feel compelled to take a card to better your total and this is correct play. But there will be many times where you will recieve a ten value card or a nine value card and bust immediately. But yet when the dealer plays on then the dealer may well turn a card from 2 to 6 and then bust.

But if the dealer busts after the player busts then the hand is not a push but a loss for the player. This advantage is substantial but it is not one to be over estimated. With accurate basic strategy then the house edge is only in the vicinity of 0.5% and with even adequate card counting skills then this can be at least reduced to 0% and possibly a slight edge.

The second and more subtle factor is connected to the first and this is that the player will be forced to bust their own hand in an attempt to improve their total. This is correct play and cannot be avoided and is another reason as to why the house starts with an edge and the 3/2 pay offs for blackjacks/naturals do not do enough to offset this.

So we don’t know if the count is plus or minus and in the absence of such information then we have to take a long term view of this and this means only one thing. The number of pluses that we cannot see will equal the number of minuses and so theoretically we can now treat the count as zero.

This is great for cover plays and especially in casinos with more than one table open. No card counter moves from table to table and bets sizable bets unless they are being signalled in by non counting team members. But let us say that you have a 20/1 bet spread of $5 to $200 and you enter mid-shoe. You could enter at say $20 and then downgrade the bets if your initial count is negative.

But also, going in at $20 allows you to double up and get to $100 very quickly and thus $200. Going from $20 to $40 to $80 to $160 looks like you are merely chasing losses or letting winnings ride. This can be achieved if the count goes immediately positive after entering.

However if the count goes negative then you can merely switch tables and enter mid-shoe again which makes you look less like a counter. So as long as you understand that entering mid-shoe makes no difference because cards unseen means that you can take the count to be zero then you will do fine entering mid-shoe.

In my opinion, books are a constant in what is an ever changing environment in so much as what is written in them has the tendency to date. Also what you have to remember is that the information that is in them also has to be deciphered and understood correctly by the individual.

I have created a name for this and it is the “understanding gap”. What this means is the difference between what is being written and what is being interpreted. This isn’t always clear cut as well as often the reader can deliberately interpret data in a way which is favourable to them. Adding and subtracting data is a common theme amongst book readers and so the reader rarely reads what is intended.

In blackjack of course then this problem isn’t as severe due to the somewhat mechanical nature of the game. But even here then care has to be taken. Merely having blackjack knowledge connected to card counting does you little good if you get caught and are then prevented from playing. So what I say on this subject is that by all means read books as this is a very important part of your education.

But you have to read them objectively and almost begin the process of disputing what you read even though you could and often will be incorrectly disputing issues with the author. Then and only then will your thinking start to evolve.

But time misdirection is the art of performing magic tricks by getting the target to look away from the move while you are doing something. The key with misdirection is that the subject must at no stage feel as if they are being manipulated into looking away. To give an obvious example, any misdirection that was so blatant like finger pointing would likely not work in a magic context simply because your subject is expecting you to do a trick and also to perform some sort of deception.

However in a gaming sense then the player to a certain extent has the advantage. The key to misdirection is to make the subject or subjects want to look somewhere else. I have heard of teams of professional cheats that used misdirection as their primary weapon, obviously these people didn’t reveal their true identities or the casinos in which they operated.

I feel that one of the primary targets for cheats are other punters. These people can be incredibly careless with their bets and money. But the key to extracting money from casinos is not to be too greedy. Past posters get caught because they try for too much too soon. Trying to get £25 on the number when the table maximum is only £25 is asking for trouble. CCTV camera’s will be inspected even if the move actually got past the gaming staff. But getting away with £1 on the number is a far easier proposition and those £35 pay outs at 35-1 really start to mount up over time.

I did try to card count but I didn’t really see the point of it all. I only had around £500 on me so even if the deck went highly positive, I couldn’t really take much advantage as the money that I had on me was basically my bankroll.

Fluctuation is very high in blackjack so anything could have basically happened during the course of one session. So instead I was looking for dealer errors as usual and I managed to find myself on first base hoping to get a dealer who exposes cards. However after nearly three hours of having no luck whatsoever I decided to call it a night. The fact that I was £50 ahead was nothing but luck although I did offer some friendly advice for a guy who was playing table maximums who seemed to think that I was an expert on the game and keep asking my advice on what to do.

I hate giving advice on other peoples money but it seemed that everything that I told him to do came off. Once again pure luck but he won about £800 based on what I had told him to do. When he got up to leave the table, he tossed me a £25 chip which I tried to refuse but he was having non of it.

Maybe I ought to go into consulting work inside casinos and advise some big punters and make money that way without the risk

This allows the player to keep count more accurately and for longer periods without fatigue. It also allows the player more “down” time to be able to interact and do other normal casino activities. The high-low count attributes a score of -1 for all tens and aces and +1 for all low cards of a deuce through to a six.

The sevens, eights and nines are considered neutral and are not counted or counted as zero which is the same thing. Keeping a total of the cards that have been dealt is called the running count. But yet many players use the running count to base their betting decisions and this is a big mistake in multiple deck games.

This is to do with the ratio of high cards to low cards and you could get two identical running counts and yet the advantage for the player is vastly different. Let us look at a count of +10 in two separate situations in a four deck game, one where only one deck had been dealt and the other where three decks had been dealt.

In the first example with only one deck dealt, there are exactly 156 cards remaining and a count of +10 equals on plus point for every 15.6 cards. In the second example with only 52 cards remaining and the same +10 count then we have a ratio of one point for every 5.2 cards. This means that the ratio of high cards to non high cards is greater in the second example……far greater.

The thing is that it does create somewhat of a nervous situation when you are ramping your bets. When you do this for the first time, you always get the feeling that everyone in the entire building knows what it is that you are doing.

This first time nervousness and paranoia should go away but with many people it doesn’t. The fact of the matter is that anyone who goes and does the bare minimum as a blackjack player will get caught. Or at the very least will have severe counter measures taken against them.

This usually involves the dealer dealing short shoes which decreases the number of hands dealt per shoe but it also decreases the number of profitable situations for the counter as well. The best and most profitable situations tend to arise at the end of the shoe so when the shoe is cut very shallow then the really profitable situations rarely arise and the game tends to be nothing more than a process for recycling money.

This is what many novice card counters do not understand, they learn the running count but do not do true count conversions. If the first ten cards out of a four deck shoe are low cards then the running count is +10. But this figure of +10 does not represent the same ratio of high cards to low cards as it would if the count was +10 with only one deck remaining.

If we use the high-low count to show what I mean, there are 208 cards in a four deck shoe. These are broken down into 80 low cards, 80 high cards and 48 middling cards that have a count of zero. So ignoring the middling cards we can see that there are now 80 high cards and aces and 70 low cards remaining for a ratio of one high card or ace to every low card at a rate of 1.14.

But with only one deck remaining if we took a standard distribution of 20 low cards, 20 high cards and 12 middling cards, taking away ten low cards gives us a ratio of high cards and aces to low cards which is 2.00 and not the 1.14 like before.

See what I mean now

Much depends on how good you are, how fast you can play, if you have rakeback, how your game stands up to multi-tabling, does watching your opponents figure greatly in your play and the list goes on and on. Usually you need to find your own level in online poker or any other form of poker to be able to make money.

Players that cannot find their own level or are constantly trying to move up and be big shots usually bust out. There is little difference with blackjack, the best card counting system is basically specific to each individual. You cannot quote some level 4 type system as being optimal if the individual cannot use it properly without losing count.

So if a certain system is “best” for you then it is “best” and it is that simple. It is the same when financial consultants recommend financial products to clients. There is no stand out best product, only what products are best for certain people.

So a blackjack player who struggles with adding up and true count conversions may find the KO Count optimal. Then again, someone who was playing long hours who was also shuffle tracking and wanted to incorporate everything as efficiently as possible may find the high/low optimal (like we did).

Then again, a player who has the mental fortitude and is doing nothing but counting and wants optimal power and results may use a level four system. So there is no such thing as the “best system” in the world…..only what is best for the individual.

See you soon

Carl “The Dean” Sampson
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Some of the criticism amazed me and especially from so called blackjack experts who clearly had not read my reasons further into the book. These were clearly people who were stuck in what was conventional card counting blackjack train of thought.

I on the other hand was thinking beyond conventional card counting. I simply did not want (could not handle) complicated multi-level counting systems whilst trying to shuffle track at the same time. Card counting is difficult at the best of times whilst having to interact in normal ways and worry about signalling in BP’s.

On top of this you are trying to keep a score on what has been won and lost and if you have people in your team who you cannot trust, you have more than enough to think about and if any “expert” thinks that while doing all this that they can use a multi-level counting system on top then I have two words to say to that……try it!

Even IF you succeeded which would be very doubtful then you still have the rather serious problem of fatigue waiting ominously just around the corner. To do all these things whilst trying to supervise several team members at the same as well as keep an eye out for casino personnel and any potential heat is very difficult.

In fact I would have to say that had I not had all of my years in gaming where I practiced counting speed and multi-level counting systems coupled with already knowing about casino techniques and surveillance then I just don’t think that I would have been able to pull everything off. There is no doubt in my mind that I would have probably been forced to drop the shuffle tracking element.

But seeing as I didn’t see how card counting could be profitable as a stand alone way of making money from blackjack in 1998 then it is doubtful if the entire thing would have got off the ground to begin with.

see you soon and take care

Carl “The Dean” Sampson

The thing is that basic strategy isn’t rocket science and is so easily learnt. All you have to do is memorise a few simple charts. But one of the underlying problems behind why millions of blackjack players worldwide both in live casinos and online casinos do not use basic is not because they cannot memorise the tables but because they simply do not believe in it.

There is a tendency to be seduced by the effect of immediate short term results. This happens in poker an awful lot. If a player re-raises a rock with K-10 and the flop comes K-10-5 and he ends up busting the AA of his opponent then this underlines in his own mind that he made the proper play.

This happens in blackjack, you tell someone that they need to take a card on 15 against a 10 and they do so. They then bust on six consecutive occasions and then think that taking a card on 15 is wrong and go back to their old way of playing.

They then say things like “well if I had stood instead of taking a card then at least I would have had a chance”. They just cannot comprehend that these strategy plays are computed over hundreds of thousands (even millions) of situations and when replicated often enough is the correct mathematical play.

You can also have certain players who try to “feel” what the next card is. I like watching these types and find them hilarious. This is especially the case when they are on the last box playing the role of “goalkeeper”.

It is quite amusing to see the look on their faces when their play leads to the dealer busting on several consecutive occasions. They almost look like some “blackjack Zen master” when all they are is extremely misguided and naive about blackjack.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson