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After watching the Fulham vs Tottenham game last night we headed to a casino for the first time in ages. In fact regular readers of the blog since it started will have read some of my earlier posts regarding these trips. The journey took about an hour so we arrived at about 9pm.

Casinos tend to be quiet at around this time so it is a good time to go. You don’t have to wait at the bar or wait for coffee for ages either. As usual we took a friend for my partner as I hate playing and leaving her. She merely likes to watch and has no interest in gaming.

The blackjack game was a six deck shoe game (not my favourite) but I decided to play anyway. Sometimes when you manage to get an inexperienced dealer then they can often make mistakes. Although in England the mistakes are often picked up by the Inspector anyway.

However I don’t have any good news to report as every dealer that I encountered seemed competent to me. I merely played table minimums for about an hour and then became bored after losing about £10.

I hate the new electronic games inside casinos these days as they leave no room for creativity with regards to gaining an edge….at least not for people like me anyway who is old school. It felt good to be back inside a casino again, maybe I just need to find some now that have decent blackjack action.

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I have said this many times and I will keep on saying it, card counting is not only a very serious business but it is also very difficult to pull off. Certain people with certain personality types are definitely not suited to playing full-time blackjack or even part time blackjack for that matter.

The thing is that it does create somewhat of a nervous situation when you are ramping your bets. When you do this for the first time, you always get the feeling that everyone in the entire building knows what it is that you are doing.

This first time nervousness and paranoia should go away but with many people it doesn’t. The fact of the matter is that anyone who goes and does the bare minimum as a blackjack player will get caught. Or at the very least will have severe counter measures taken against them.

This usually involves the dealer dealing short shoes which decreases the number of hands dealt per shoe but it also decreases the number of profitable situations for the counter as well. The best and most profitable situations tend to arise at the end of the shoe so when the shoe is cut very shallow then the really profitable situations rarely arise and the game tends to be nothing more than a process for recycling money.

This is what many novice card counters do not understand, they learn the running count but do not do true count conversions. If the first ten cards out of a four deck shoe are low cards then the running count is +10. But this figure of +10 does not represent the same ratio of high cards to low cards as it would if the count was +10 with only one deck remaining.

If we use the high-low count to show what I mean, there are 208 cards in a four deck shoe. These are broken down into 80 low cards, 80 high cards and 48 middling cards that have a count of zero. So ignoring the middling cards we can see that there are now 80 high cards and aces and 70 low cards remaining for a ratio of one high card or ace to every low card at a rate of 1.14.

But with only one deck remaining if we took a standard distribution of 20 low cards, 20 high cards and 12 middling cards, taking away ten low cards gives us a ratio of high cards and aces to low cards which is 2.00 and not the 1.14 like before.

See what I mean now

There are many benefits to playing at an online casino. You don’t need to worry about getting all dressed up, you can indulge in any of your favorite personal habits that may be otherwise precluded by a visit to a land-based casino (smoking is one such obvious example), you don’t need to worry about any physical quirks of facial expressions giving away the fact that you are holding a bad hand or that you are beginning to feel tense or stressed, you can quit playing at any time, as well as being free to come and go, and take breaks as you wish. One huge advantage is that you don’t need to travel any distance at all when you feel the urge to play your favorite casino games – you can simply turn on your computer, go to your favorite online casino web site and away you go! Online casinos do have their own particular character, though, and there are certain things that patrons should become aware of when looking at web-based casinos.

First, and probably most obvious, you are not physically there, so it is hard to assess just what is real and what isn’t. How do you know, for example, if you are playing at a real, genuine online casino, or if you have merely arrived at a flashy, up-front web page with no substance behind it that will simply relieve you of your money, credit card details and, possibly, even your identity? Online patrons should realize that there are codes of practice and industry standards that the very best online casinos sign up to, and they are graded regularly on whether or not they continue to meet the strict criteria. Look for the logos on the website, and be very wary about any casinos not displaying membership. Beware also that some previously disreputable online casinos, having been made to cease trading under one name simply shut down and start up under a new moniker. This tends to be common practice among the worst offenders, which is why adherence to the codes of practice is important for gamers.

Gamers also need to remember that although online casinos may seem much more laid back and relaxed than their land-based equivalents, they are still playing casino games for money, and can still lose large amounts of money by doing so. In addition, deciding to relax by drinking more because you are in your home environment can backfire if you become so loose that your judgement becomes impaired.

New online gamers will also find the independently audited reports published and made available for their patron, which detail the payout levels of the casino. The published payout figure will give you a good idea of the percentage an online casino pays out and gives a good indication of how fairly the casino runs its games. Remember though that the figure is an average payout and some win much more (by bagging a jackpot), whilst some may lose far more.

There have been many changes within the gaming environment inside my home city of Sheffield over the years. The three casinos inside that City have each been top dog at some stage in the past. Back in 1990, it was Napoleans that was the number one spot in the City with Grosvenor and Bonapartes bringing up the rear.

Then in 1996, the A&S Leisure Group moved their Bonapartes Casino to a brand new location in Sheffield and a brand new casino. This was far bigger and more plush than the other two and suddenly the new Bonapartes became top dog and jumped from 3rd to 1st with Grosvenor being demoted to third behind Napoleans.

The landscape has changed again and the new G-Casino (former Grosvenor) has just opened and even though I have yet to go personally, I have spoked with many people who have. Apparently it can blow the other two out of the water and is by far and away the best casino in Sheffield.

This now makes the 1990-1996 top dog Napoleans bringing up the rear and this will be a blow for A&S Leisure in Sheffield. Years ago the Sheffield Grosvenor casino was considered the weak link in Grosvenor’s chain and there was talk afoot at one stage that it would be bought out by the Staki’s Group (who went on to be Gala) and that the location was to be moved.

I can’t really say that I will get to see the new G-Casino since they will more than likely be aware of my history although I don’t know what they think that I am going to do. I am actually quite happy about the situation though and I quite like the thought of Grosvenor being top dog.

See you soon

Carl

There have been big debates down the years about the merits of card counting systems and comparing one to the other. This kind of reminds me of online poker and what is the best way to operate. With online poker then there is simply no one shoe fits all policy and there never can be in a million years.

Much depends on how good you are, how fast you can play, if you have rakeback, how your game stands up to multi-tabling, does watching your opponents figure greatly in your play and the list goes on and on. Usually you need to find your own level in online poker or any other form of poker to be able to make money.

Players that cannot find their own level or are constantly trying to move up and be big shots usually bust out. There is little difference with blackjack, the best card counting system is basically specific to each individual. You cannot quote some level 4 type system as being optimal if the individual cannot use it properly without losing count.

So if a certain system is “best” for you then it is “best” and it is that simple. It is the same when financial consultants recommend financial products to clients. There is no stand out best product, only what products are best for certain people.

So a blackjack player who struggles with adding up and true count conversions may find the KO Count optimal. Then again, someone who was playing long hours who was also shuffle tracking and wanted to incorporate everything as efficiently as possible may find the high/low optimal (like we did).

Then again, a player who has the mental fortitude and is doing nothing but counting and wants optimal power and results may use a level four system. So there is no such thing as the “best system” in the world…..only what is best for the individual.

See you soon

Carl “The Dean” Sampson
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In one of my recent posts I touched on the subject of cheating in casino stud poker. Usually when there are big odds to be found then these games tend to attract the cheats. This has nothing to do with the house edge but the actual pay-offs that are obtained when you can get away with a cheating move in this form of casino gambling.

The best game for this is roulette where you don’t have to get away with many moves to walk away with a substantial pay-off. The 35-1 and 17-1 top pay-offs are like beacons to cheats. But in CSP too then you can get big pay-offs.

50-1 for a straight flush and 20-1 for quads are big odds as is the generally offered 8-1 for a full-house. Of course unlike on roulette, big hands get noticed on CSP and you need to remember one very important thing, casinos can and will delay payment until CCTV has been checked and it would take a very naive casino to blindly pay a huge bet on a straight flush and there are not many naive casino bosses around.

I have known some pretty poor shift managers in my time but never a General Manager. Card marking is another threat to casinos although in my experience, the cards are not checked well enough. As is the case, small casinos with little action and small turnover can be got at because they don’t perceive any threat from punters playing for small amounts.

As usual collusion is yet another problem and a dealer can easily pay an empty box for its ante when they have no hand and then claim a mistake even when they got caught or if the supervisor spotted it.

Casino bosses are more than aware of collusion incidents and the CCTV and surveillance is as much for the staff as it is for the punters.

See you soon

Carl

Several hundred years ago, the Caribbean was the centre for piracy on the high seas when people like Blackbeard was feared all around that area. The word “Caribbean” also applies to the casino version of poker as well where the players get dealt five cards that have to beat those of the dealer.

I explained a little about how this game worked yesterday but there are numerous poker cheating moves that are available on this game in live play. Of course if you read any poker material on cheating then a fair number of the moves would involve the dealer.

In the case of CSP then this does not apply obviously as the dealer is working for the casino and despite the thoughts of some, casinos do not cheat. They have no reason to in the overwhelming number of cases so lets put that particular view to bed right now and move on.

But……one such move that is cheating and that is for players to inform other players of their cards. This would certainly not be allowed in real poker but I have worked in several casinos where the players were allowed to blatantly look at each others cards.

Let us say that a table full of CSP players discussed their hands or had a series of hidden signals to determine certain cards. Each player gets dealt five cards and in those thirty five cards that were dealt to the players, all four kings were out and three of the aces.

The dealer had an ace showing, now not only do the players know that the dealer cannot make a qualifying A-K hand to beat their non-pair hands, they also know that the dealer cannot make a pair of aces. This then means that to qualify then they must make a pair out of their remaining unseen four cards and not five.

This is far more difficult to do so in this instance the players could play whatever hands they had. This is one form of cheating but I will be expanding on other forms in later posts.

See you soon

Carl

It always used to amaze me (and still does) that live casinos like punters to know that blackjack is a game of skill which can be beaten. But yet when anyone exhibits enough skill to be able to do so then they are prevented from playing in the same way or even from prevented from playing at all in some locations.

I find this behaviour objectionable to be quite frank and always have even when I was in gaming. I understand perfectly the casino’s position. At the core of it all is a company who is providing entertainment and nothing more. But if this is the case (which it is) then these companies shouldn’t (even in the past) have lured people in to play the game in that way.

So what they are basically saying is, we want all of the players who think that they can play the game with skill but who are deluding themselves but anyone who really has the skill is not welcome. I don’t mind not being welcome and never have but I have never liked some of the tactics of the casinos where I worked.

Skill can also be obtained on roulette as well, if you don’t think that is true then you obviously haven’t read enough of my posts. Like I said with the biased wheel post yesterday, it is possible for a player to obtain an edge on roulette on the right wheel greater than a card counter can obtain on blackjack.

In all my posts it has become evident to me that I have not revealed any clues as to how to spot biased wheels. What we are looking at here are what should be normal random distributions of numbers.

The next step is to look at if these numbers are appearing outside of what is normal random distribution. Seeing the number 4 arrive three times in four spins is certainly not evidence of bias. Most biased wheels are not biased enough to overcome the 2.7% house edge on single zero roulette.

We now need to get into areas like confidence levels here but in no way am I a mathematician. I just have access to confidential data that is all so I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the figures…..just the sources that they stem from.

Modern Huxley wheels have bias detection software but I believe that most casinos would not employ these very expensive wheels when they could use cheaper varieties. The figures that I have seen recommend tracking a wheel for an initial 200 spins.

This represents the initial assessment, if a wheel has a strong enough bias to be worthwhile then it will show itself during this length of time. The next step is to take a look at the frequencies involved but that is for a later post.

see you soon

Carl
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Question……..would a punter be able to spot a biased wheel with the naked eye.

Answer………Almost certainly not

Question…….Would a casino member of staff spot a bias with the naked eye

Answer……..Almost certainly not

The problem with trying to spot a bias is that numbers frequently come in clusters anyway. In this instance then it is exactly the same as lottery numbers, in fact the chances of either lottery numbers or roulette numbers coming out in equal frequency are very remote. If you had 37 spins of a roulette wheel then the chances that these 37 spins would produce all 37 numbers exactly once would be astronomical.

So this means that numbers are getting repeated quite often in the short term and this is entirely normal and merely part of normal random distribution.

So it is difficult or even downright impossible for punters or staff to spot this with the naked eye as they witness normal events that appear like bias every single day when it actually isn’t.

On a 37 number roulette wheel then the bias doesn’t have to be great to totally offset the house edge. On this 37 number wheel, the odds of any one number arriving are 36-1 and the odds that are paid are 35-1.

But if a certain number (for reasons unknown) was arriving not at a rate of once every 37 spins but once in every 36 spins then any punter who recognised this would be playing equal with the house.

Take that one step further and let us say that a number was arriving once in every 35 spins…..now we are into making money territory. Imagine a player who has found a bias on number 17 and was betting $5 per spin.

He was getting 70 spins per hour on a fast game so was wagering $350/hour. But his number was being hit on average one spin in 35 so he was getting 2 winning bets per hour. At 35/1 plus the $5 bet back then this equates to $180×2 = $360.

He has had 68 losing spins at $5 which is $340 and 2 winning spins at $175 per spin so he is $10 in profit. If he can replicate that then he is making $10/hour from a biased wheel. If he doubles his bet then he makes $20/hour and so on.

He is returning $10 on every $350 wagered and is returning 2.85% on turnover. To put this into perspective, this is considerably higher than a conventional blackjack card counter. The difference is that once a wheel like this is found then a player can get away with this and perform this far easier than a card counter.

see you soon

Carl

When I wrote my first book, “Princes of Darkness : The World of High-stakes Blackjack” back in 2006, many people jumped on me for only using the basic high/low count. This is a basic level 1 counting system where you only add and subtract in units of one.

Some of the criticism amazed me and especially from so called blackjack experts who clearly had not read my reasons further into the book. These were clearly people who were stuck in what was conventional card counting blackjack train of thought.

I on the other hand was thinking beyond conventional card counting. I simply did not want (could not handle) complicated multi-level counting systems whilst trying to shuffle track at the same time. Card counting is difficult at the best of times whilst having to interact in normal ways and worry about signalling in BP’s.

On top of this you are trying to keep a score on what has been won and lost and if you have people in your team who you cannot trust, you have more than enough to think about and if any “expert” thinks that while doing all this that they can use a multi-level counting system on top then I have two words to say to that……try it!

Even IF you succeeded which would be very doubtful then you still have the rather serious problem of fatigue waiting ominously just around the corner. To do all these things whilst trying to supervise several team members at the same as well as keep an eye out for casino personnel and any potential heat is very difficult.

In fact I would have to say that had I not had all of my years in gaming where I practiced counting speed and multi-level counting systems coupled with already knowing about casino techniques and surveillance then I just don’t think that I would have been able to pull everything off. There is no doubt in my mind that I would have probably been forced to drop the shuffle tracking element.

But seeing as I didn’t see how card counting could be profitable as a stand alone way of making money from blackjack in 1998 then it is doubtful if the entire thing would have got off the ground to begin with.

see you soon and take care

Carl “The Dean” Sampson