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I have been asked many times about roulette betting systems and the overall effectiveness of them. Novices tend to believe too much in betting systems and with it the most popular of the lot which is the Martingale. Sceptics basically rip them to pieces but are they correct to do so? Well the true value of roulette betting systems cannot be underestimated. If you wanted to go into a casino on any one individual evening then using a betting system would offer you a fantastic way to end the evening ahead.

One thing that you need to remember about roulette betting systems is that they need not be the Martingale which can quickly spiral out of control because of the doubling up nature of the system. But there are many systems that are used or can be used that are cancellation systems which do not have anywhere the same level of bankroll requirement and certainly do not escalate like the Martingale does.

However where betting systems can prove their effectiveness is when they allow the player to maybe qualify for other casino perks and benefits whilst seeming to be a “player”. Casino comps can sometimes be substantial and it can definitely be in a players best interests to try and qualify for these in the cheapest way possible. In the famous book “Thirteen against the bank” written by Norman Leigh, he described a classic cancellation system that reportedly took the casinos in France for £66,000 which in 1966 was a massive amount of money at that time.

What does it take to become a card counter? Or to put that another way, what does it take to win considerable amounts of money from a casino without it being down to luck? Well I think that it takes a special type of person and one that is different than most other people. Like Billy Walters for example who won $2 million from a casino in Atlantic City in 1986. It wasn’t the amount that he won that was the issue but how he did it. To find a biased wheel and then exploit that wheel takes an awful amount of determination.

You must really want to beat the casinos badly in a certain way and this is what I mean by special type of person. There are numerous people down the years who have done similar things but in my mind this really separates them from other successful gamblers in other fields. In poker it is really accepted that a good player will make money and there are many people who do so in the modern online game.

In blackjack in years gone by then there were people that made money from that game but even that game wasn’t difficult when compared to games like roulette or even sports betting for that matter. Roulette is a game where the player is supposed to not be ever able to get an edge due to the in built house edge that can never change. This is true to a certain extent but biased wheels change the equation considerably. Let us say that for instance long run analysis showed that a certain number was arriving once every 33 spins instead of once every 37 spins.

This creates actual odds of 32-1 for this event happening but yet you are being paid 35-1 when it does. So if you bet $10 per spin and saw 33 spins an hour then you would make a good hourly rate exploiting this wheel. You would lose $320 on average on the 32 losing spins but win $350 for the winning spin thus making $30/hour.

It is well known among certain circles that roulette wheels can often exhibit bias. This basically means wheels that are showing numbers coming more than are statistically normal. On a 37 number wheel then each number will arrive once every 37 spins. Over a long enough series of trials then you will tend to see this distribution or near as damn it. But there are often reasons where certain wheels are showing numbers that are coming more often than what they should be!

This can be to do with temperature differences or the main reason is usually to do with faults that are present inside the actual wheel itself. This could be a looseness in the actual frets or canoes that are absorbing energy as the ball lands and thus warping the outcome of the event.

If this leads to so much as a certain number coming one spin in every 36 spins instead of one in every thirty seven spins then this would allow the player to be at evens with the house. It is easy to see then that if a player was seeing any individual number arrive at a rate of once every thirty fives spins or greater then this would not only reveal a bias but also a bias that was large enough to give the player enough of an edge to make a theoretical profit.

The main problem comes from detecting a true bias and this means that seeing false patterns is all too real with detecting wheel bias. I would ascertain though that any number that was coming more than it should over say 200 spins would merit further investigation. If that continued to as much as 500 spins then it would have to then be taken very seriously and after 1000 spins then wagering money could seriously be considered.

With certain bets on roulette, players can unwittingly increase the house edge against them in that particular situation. One may be forgiven for thinking that the house edge is fixed at roulette but it isn’t and can drift depending on the type of bet that a player places.

I will show a classic example here, one player places a bet of $10 on first and second dozens. This bet wins 2-1 on each winning section and seeing as they can be only one winning bet while the other bet loses, if a number comes first or second dozen then the player wins $10. The winning dozen wins $20 while the losing dozen loses $10 so the net result is a win of $10.

The house edge for this bet is 2.70% but the bet could have been placed better. By splitting the total $20 and placing $15 on the low numbers and the remaining five dollars on the 19-24 six line then he has still covered all of the numbers from 1-24 in the same way that he would have by betting first and second dozen.

If a number from 1-18 comes then the even money low number bet gets paid even money but the bet from 19-24 loses so the bet makes no money but it doesn’t lose any either. This makes the bet seem inferior on the surface but the 19-24 pay-off gets paid 5-1 and this winning bet wins five units minus the one unit loss on 1-18.

The long term pay-off is exactly the same but the difference comes when zero arrives. With the old bet everything is lost but with the new bet then the player gets returned 50% of his bet on low numbers which in this case is $7.50. So every time zero comes the player saves $7.50…….the effect of this reduces the house edge from 2.70% assuming a single zero wheel to only 1.35%.

Why not come and play roulette at bwin casino ?

Roulette is one of the biggest casino games ever played and features in many smash hit films that show a hero spending his cash over at the casinos roulette table while speaking to a woman.

The glamour that seems to come with playing the game is a huge draw factor and because of this there are a large number of big money gamblers that head straight to the roulette tables once they enter a casino or sign into an online based client.

There are a couple of things that new and inexperienced players should know, helping to reduce the chances of you staking all of your cash and not hitting at least one win.

The first thing that you should be aware of is the number of online roulette scams that are operating, these are usually in the form of an ebook that claims to be able to give you the secrets to beating the game every time.

Believe me when i say, these are nothing that are going to improve your chances of winning, they are just a scam that has been created in order to draw money from people who are looking to make quick money through gambling. The majority of the information that you get within these ebooks is easily accessible online, it just needs to be searched for.

The second thing that you should be looking at before heading to the roulette table is that the odds are there for a reason. This means for example that all the numbers on the table pay out 35/1 odds, mainly because the possibility of you choosing the right number is very limited.

Ok you see these new television versions of the game and there are always people hitting the right numbers, you have to think on the larger scale here, it will seem that people are continuously winning but when you have 40 to 50 people all looking to place money onto numbers, there are going to be a couple of people who will guess correctly.

Thirdly and most importantly, manage your bankroll efficiently, assign what you would consider to be disposable funds and stake comfortably within that amount. This way should you have a rough time at the tables, you still have enough cash for other things. If you are looking to place a number of bets, make sure that you space them out, giving you a bigger winning area than if you were to place directly onto 3 numbers next to each other.

The best advice that could be given if you feel that you will get too caught up in the moment is to only have the cash that you are willing to wager on your person, that way should you run out of funds you have to move away from the table, giving you time to think about what to do next.

Approach the game with caution and you will have a good time, regardless of the result but step up to the table with the wanting for fast money and your bound to feel that you have been robbed by the casino.

Play smart and play responsibly.

I can well understand anyone who thinks that the dealer cannot control a roulette ball. After all, their views and opinions are backed up by scientific evidence and the “pro” brigade don’t have any proof.

It is the lack of proof that is so frustrating but no one will ever convince me that dealers cannot spin sections. I have heard the question asked so many times that if dealers could do this then why wouldn’t more of them work in collusion with punters or friends and associates?

Well I have a very simply answer to that, firstly how would anyone ever get to find out that dealers were doing this. The dealers and the accomplices certainly wouldn’t tell. Secondly in my experience only a very small percentage of croupiers ever have the ability. It takes considerable practice to build up this skill.

The staff turnover in casinos due to the conditions of the job and the fact that the working hours are not conducive to a social life means that many leave within a year or two. So most of the croupiers never get to acquire the skill. Even most of the longer term croupiers are simply not bothered by trying to win money.

But getting an edge is all a croupier can do. The house starts off with a 2.7% house edge, so the dealer needs to affect the result enough to offset this first. Even a very skilled dealer cannot guarantee success. So to make a considerable amount of money doing this would involve having a considerable bankroll and the confidence to be able to withstand losses that may have been far bigger than what you have ever experienced.

This is very difficult, but even if you are successful then the casino will not allow you to remain that way and will take countermeasures against you or any other winner.

See you soon

Carl

Years ago when I was a casino gaming inspector (someone who supervises the gaming tables), you could always tell which punters were going to make a move. Or at least you could if you had enough experience and imagination. Because to cheat well then you have to have imagination and creativity. Timing and psychology along with misdirection are the hallmark of a highly skilled cheat.

Amateur cheats get caught and this is what an awful lot of people see when they see cheating. So when you see things like this then it is easy to believe that cheating is difficult……it is if you are not skilled in it but relatively easy otherwise. The real skill comes down to timing but that can be said of an awful lot of disciplines.

Timing is key in martial arts and combat sports, key to overtaking in Formula 1, key to a great Golf swing and also key to cheating. Expert cheats create time by using misdirection as a tool to deflect your thought patterns and vision. The above average cheat doesn’t have the skill of a Derren Brown but most of the time they don’t need to have as sloppy staff basically do their work for them.

If I so desired, I could go into any casino in the UK and take money. Even though I have never practiced it and never would……I still know how to do it after many years in casino gambling. I know what staff look for and what details get past them. To cheat well inside a casino then you have to think like a member of staff.

If anybody was paying too much attention to the gaming inspector then this was always a potential warning sign to us. It is different if they are making conversation but someone looking at you is not a natural reaction when there is so much more going off on the roulette table and in the wheel.

see you soon

Carl

Back when I was in gaming, the casino’s never trusted their own staff. Although this is hardly bad because if I owned my own casino then I wouldn’t trust the people who worked for me either.

My experience of human nature is such that if people are given the opportunity to steal and especially when they can get away with it then they will do so. It is just nothing more than human nature. The situation is made worse by the fact that croupiers and casino employees are not well paid compared to other professions.

Although it has to be said that paying staff more money would not deter them from cheating. I have been approached numerous times by crooked punters. They tended to find out where we socialised out of work and then hung out there.

We were expressly forbidden to mix with punters for this very reason although that didn’t stop it from happening. I should have reported these approaches but didn’t as I did not want to stir up any more trouble. I figured that I had been targeted for a reason and that reason was because it was common knowledge that I was disgruntled working in that job.

So it isn’t surprising that certain punters must have heard my conversations with other members of staff in the pit area. But I knew of cases where staff were colluding with punters and there were numerous cases where staff were actually caught stealing. I have heard of cases where chips were passed to punters by all sorts of ways.

I have seen dealers deliberately pay losing bets and I have known that it was deliberate but when you lump all of this together then you can hardly blame casinos for watching their staff.

You wear trousers, shirts and waistcoats without pockets and belts were not allowed where I worked and even watches inside one casino although that was for other reasons as well.

Casino owners do not want punters asking a croupier what time it is and then realising that it is time to go home

see you soon

Carl
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It always used to amaze me (and still does) that live casinos like punters to know that blackjack is a game of skill which can be beaten. But yet when anyone exhibits enough skill to be able to do so then they are prevented from playing in the same way or even from prevented from playing at all in some locations.

I find this behaviour objectionable to be quite frank and always have even when I was in gaming. I understand perfectly the casino’s position. At the core of it all is a company who is providing entertainment and nothing more. But if this is the case (which it is) then these companies shouldn’t (even in the past) have lured people in to play the game in that way.

So what they are basically saying is, we want all of the players who think that they can play the game with skill but who are deluding themselves but anyone who really has the skill is not welcome. I don’t mind not being welcome and never have but I have never liked some of the tactics of the casinos where I worked.

Skill can also be obtained on roulette as well, if you don’t think that is true then you obviously haven’t read enough of my posts. Like I said with the biased wheel post yesterday, it is possible for a player to obtain an edge on roulette on the right wheel greater than a card counter can obtain on blackjack.

In all my posts it has become evident to me that I have not revealed any clues as to how to spot biased wheels. What we are looking at here are what should be normal random distributions of numbers.

The next step is to look at if these numbers are appearing outside of what is normal random distribution. Seeing the number 4 arrive three times in four spins is certainly not evidence of bias. Most biased wheels are not biased enough to overcome the 2.7% house edge on single zero roulette.

We now need to get into areas like confidence levels here but in no way am I a mathematician. I just have access to confidential data that is all so I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the figures…..just the sources that they stem from.

Modern Huxley wheels have bias detection software but I believe that most casinos would not employ these very expensive wheels when they could use cheaper varieties. The figures that I have seen recommend tracking a wheel for an initial 200 spins.

This represents the initial assessment, if a wheel has a strong enough bias to be worthwhile then it will show itself during this length of time. The next step is to take a look at the frequencies involved but that is for a later post.

see you soon

Carl
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Question……..would a punter be able to spot a biased wheel with the naked eye.

Answer………Almost certainly not

Question…….Would a casino member of staff spot a bias with the naked eye

Answer……..Almost certainly not

The problem with trying to spot a bias is that numbers frequently come in clusters anyway. In this instance then it is exactly the same as lottery numbers, in fact the chances of either lottery numbers or roulette numbers coming out in equal frequency are very remote. If you had 37 spins of a roulette wheel then the chances that these 37 spins would produce all 37 numbers exactly once would be astronomical.

So this means that numbers are getting repeated quite often in the short term and this is entirely normal and merely part of normal random distribution.

So it is difficult or even downright impossible for punters or staff to spot this with the naked eye as they witness normal events that appear like bias every single day when it actually isn’t.

On a 37 number roulette wheel then the bias doesn’t have to be great to totally offset the house edge. On this 37 number wheel, the odds of any one number arriving are 36-1 and the odds that are paid are 35-1.

But if a certain number (for reasons unknown) was arriving not at a rate of once every 37 spins but once in every 36 spins then any punter who recognised this would be playing equal with the house.

Take that one step further and let us say that a number was arriving once in every 35 spins…..now we are into making money territory. Imagine a player who has found a bias on number 17 and was betting $5 per spin.

He was getting 70 spins per hour on a fast game so was wagering $350/hour. But his number was being hit on average one spin in 35 so he was getting 2 winning bets per hour. At 35/1 plus the $5 bet back then this equates to $180×2 = $360.

He has had 68 losing spins at $5 which is $340 and 2 winning spins at $175 per spin so he is $10 in profit. If he can replicate that then he is making $10/hour from a biased wheel. If he doubles his bet then he makes $20/hour and so on.

He is returning $10 on every $350 wagered and is returning 2.85% on turnover. To put this into perspective, this is considerably higher than a conventional blackjack card counter. The difference is that once a wheel like this is found then a player can get away with this and perform this far easier than a card counter.

see you soon

Carl