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It always used to amaze me (and still does) that live casinos like punters to know that blackjack is a game of skill which can be beaten. But yet when anyone exhibits enough skill to be able to do so then they are prevented from playing in the same way or even from prevented from playing at all in some locations.

I find this behaviour objectionable to be quite frank and always have even when I was in gaming. I understand perfectly the casino’s position. At the core of it all is a company who is providing entertainment and nothing more. But if this is the case (which it is) then these companies shouldn’t (even in the past) have lured people in to play the game in that way.

So what they are basically saying is, we want all of the players who think that they can play the game with skill but who are deluding themselves but anyone who really has the skill is not welcome. I don’t mind not being welcome and never have but I have never liked some of the tactics of the casinos where I worked.

Skill can also be obtained on roulette as well, if you don’t think that is true then you obviously haven’t read enough of my posts. Like I said with the biased wheel post yesterday, it is possible for a player to obtain an edge on roulette on the right wheel greater than a card counter can obtain on blackjack.

In all my posts it has become evident to me that I have not revealed any clues as to how to spot biased wheels. What we are looking at here are what should be normal random distributions of numbers.

The next step is to look at if these numbers are appearing outside of what is normal random distribution. Seeing the number 4 arrive three times in four spins is certainly not evidence of bias. Most biased wheels are not biased enough to overcome the 2.7% house edge on single zero roulette.

We now need to get into areas like confidence levels here but in no way am I a mathematician. I just have access to confidential data that is all so I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the figures…..just the sources that they stem from.

Modern Huxley wheels have bias detection software but I believe that most casinos would not employ these very expensive wheels when they could use cheaper varieties. The figures that I have seen recommend tracking a wheel for an initial 200 spins.

This represents the initial assessment, if a wheel has a strong enough bias to be worthwhile then it will show itself during this length of time. The next step is to take a look at the frequencies involved but that is for a later post.

see you soon

Carl
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You recall me talking about “The Salmon”…..if anyone does not understand what I am talking about here then see my previous post. The next instance of me seeing him on roulette occurred a few days later.

I recognised him instantly because of his looks and also because of what he had done on roulette a few days earlier. This time I was watching him like a hawk but I was more concerned in allowing him the opportunity to bet so I could observe him more.

What I didn’t want to do was to blow him away from the table by dealing aggressively and also speeding up the wheel to a ridiculous level. So I kept the wheel at the same speed which was quite slow and before long he was buying in for a £5 stack of colour chips.

He watched my spin for a few minutes and then started to bet. His first few spins missed but each of them was not far away and he was unfortunate enough to have three spins where the ball landed next to his number.

He lost his initial £5 but he then bought some more colour chips and started to spread his bets more. Within thirty minutes he proceeded to win back the money that he had lost and about another £50 on top.

I also noticed that when I left the table for a break……so did he. This got me thinking that there was obviously something about my spin that he liked. I became intensely fascinated by what he was doing and he almost seemed unbeatable. It could just have all been luck so I then decided to track the amount of money that he was winning.

I already knew that he was about £650 ahead over the two sessions that I had seen him. Over the next few months, I managed to watch him an awful lot without him knowing both when he was on my table and also adjoining tables that I could observe clearly.

I kept a running total of bets that I could see. I expanded this by bringing in someone else to help me watch him. We both had a keen interest in controlling a roulette ball and visual prediction. The following three months was alarming, out of a total of 44 sessions, “The Salmon” lost just 7 times and each loss was only in the region of about £20-£50 but when he won he would win anywhere from £50-£150.

These were figures which the casino never bothered to clock but his total over that period was that he was ahead in the region of about £2500……now I was really taking notice.

Carl “The Dean” Sampson
Experience the thrill and Play Roulette online at bwin

My first ever encounter with “The Salmon” was memorable. Actually I really ought to point out here that the use of the term “Salmon” has been taken from a blackjack card counter back in the sixties who was dubbed the “Salmon” by casino staff because he was winning and not losing consistently like everyone else. The name came about because Salmon swim up stream against the flow of the water.

This term was in the classic blackjack book “Beat the Dealer” by Ed Thorp and I figured that this name would suit my own version of the “Salmon” on roulette. I recall one early evening at about 7pm, I was dealing on American Roulette 1 when a guy walked up to my table with a couple of his friends. He looked something of a nerd and was about 5ft 9in tall, slightly overweight with a terrible hair style.

He watched the game for a while whilst talking to his associates and he sort of sounded quite irritating. After about fifteen minutes of watching me spin the ball, he then proceeded to place 50p which is £0.50 on number 17. I had no reason to suspect that this wouldn’t be anything more than a losing bet but a few seconds later I was placing the dolly on number 17 and paying him £17.50. He took his chips and put them into his pocket but left the original £0.50p bet on the number.

I gave the ball a big spin and then he appeared to think for a couple of seconds and proceeded to take the cash chips back out of his pocket and place them all back on to number 17. This gave him £18 on the number and this time my eyes were glancing at the wheel as the ball began to slow. With the final half revolution, I knew that it would be close and it was. It bounced around 17 for a second or two until finally coming to rest right in the middle of number 17.

His friends couldn’t believe it and neither could I, this guy had just won £630 from 50p in the space of two spins. A 1260 return on investment but there was nothing to suggest at this stage that this was nothing more than luck and I was sure that it was no more than that…..time would prove me very wrong.

look out for more on “The Salmon”

Carl